Good Thing? Bad Thing? Who Knows? The Art of Navigating Unpredictable Change
A reflection on how challenging our instinctive responses to setbacks helps us lead through uncertainty and change
Despite knowing that change is unpredictable, I sometimes feel slightly annoyed when the change doesn’t go as smoothly as I had planned. Unpredictability is frequent in technology implementation as we deal with system delays and employees' reluctance to change.
We worry about not achieving the desired outcomes and the hoped-for future vision. After all, we spent months seeking support from the C-suite and key stakeholders. Moreover, no technology programme comes cheap, and we want to see returns on our investment. Or we worry when our carefully designed change interventions do not give the expected results.
Whenever I feel that change is ‘too unpredictable’, I refer to this Sufi tale to find balance and a more positive perspective. It’s also very useful when reflecting on any personal change.
Once upon a time, an old farmer lived in a valley with his son, a handsome and dutiful youth. They lived a peaceful life despite a lack of material possessions. They were very happy.
One day, the old man borrowed money from the neighbours to buy a young and beautiful horse. The very same day he bought it, there was a huge storm. The frightened horse jumped the fence and escaped into the hills. The neighbours came to express their concern, “Oh, that’s too bad. How are you going to work the fields now? And how are you going to repay us?”
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and replied, “Good thing? Bad thing? Who knows?”
A few days, while walking in the forest to gather new ideas, he bumped into his horse that was peacefully grazing the grass together with another eight fine horses. The farmer took them all, brought them back to the stable and built a taller fence so that the horses couldn’t escape. The neighbours again gathered around, “Oh, how lucky! We thought you were destitute, but look at you now, you can do much more work than ever before!” they said.
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and replied, “Good thing? Bad thing? Who knows?”
The next day, the farmer’s son fell off one of the new horses and broke his leg. “Such misfortune,” said the neighbours. The leg healed crookedly and left the son with a permanent limp. The neighbours were concerned again, “Now that he is incapacitated, he can’t help you around, and he’ll never find a fine wife. That’s too bad.”
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and replied, “Good thing? Bad thing? Who knows?”
Soon, the news came that war had broken out, and all the young men were required to join the army. The villagers were sad because they knew that many of the young men would not come back. The farmer’s son could not be drafted because of his broken leg. So the neighbours gathered around again: “How lucky! You get to keep your only son!”
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and replied, “Good thing? Bad thing? Who knows?”
And the story goes on forever.
Let’s use this tale as inspiration to explore how it applies to managing uncertainty in business.
Embracing Unpredictability
Change never comes fully formed. Plans that seem flawless on paper often fall apart when faced with human nature's unpredictability. People’s responses can be surprising, disruptive, or surprisingly positive, and predicting how they will react is impossible.
Consider the farmer from the old Sufi tale. When his newly purchased horse bolted during a storm, his neighbours rushed to commiserate his misfortune. Yet, this seemingly adverse event soon led to unexpected opportunities. Likewise, events that look problematic today in organisations—such as resistance to a new system, loss of a key employee, or delays in a critical project—can sometimes turn out to be positive.
Executives often feel pressure to adhere to the agreed-upon plan; however, accepting uncertainty doesn't imply weakness or lack of preparation. Instead, it acknowledges the reality of human dynamics and creates space for adaptive decision-making. Leaders who recognise unpredictability as inherent in the change journey become better equipped to react when there are setbacks.
By shifting perspective towards the unexpected, executives can position their organisations to leverage uncertainty. This role modelling will encourage their teams to be flexible, creative, and resilient. The cultural mindset will shift from a rigid plan into a dynamic process, helping businesses emerge stronger from every unexpected twist.
Developing Adaptability
Adaptability is not just reacting to change but proactively creating conditions that enable effective responses. In the tale, the farmer builds a taller fence when the horses return. In a company, this means proactively strengthening its operations to handle future challenges.
In practical terms, adaptability can involve redesigning processes, adjusting resource allocation, or quickly shifting strategies. It also means revisiting communication strategies to engage people better or refining goals when conditions change. Adaptability is about readiness—creating flexibility to respond swiftly and appropriately when circumstances evolve.
Adaptability includes encouraging employees to expect and navigate change smoothly. An adaptable mindset fosters innovation, empowers decision-making at all levels, and develops the confidence to seize opportunities.
Seeing Beyond Immediate Consequences
The immediate reaction to setbacks is to provoke anxiety. The farmer’s son breaking his leg attracted neighbours' pity but later prevented him from going to war. In organisational contexts, setbacks similarly mask underlying opportunities.
When a critical employee leaves unexpectedly, it may initially appear as a significant setback. However, it can also be an opportunity for fresh talent or prompt a rethink about organisational roles and structures. Delays in project timelines allow teams to reassess and improve products or services, ultimately delivering higher quality.
Executives benefit from a balanced perspective—recognising that setbacks can have hidden layers of value. This positive mindset increases resilience, encourages proactive problem-solving, and opens the door to strategic insights. Seeing beyond immediate impacts allows leaders to navigate temporary disruptions with composure, keeping teams motivated and focused on long-term outcomes.
The Human Factor
People are both the most significant asset and challenge in organisational change. Human reactions are varied and unpredictable, driven by individual motivations, fears, and experiences.
Leaders need to understand that reactions to change are deeply personal. Resistance often stems from uncertainty, loss of control, or fear of incompetence. Addressing these emotions directly through transparent communication, active listening, and empathetic engagement is crucial. Creating psychological safety—an environment where employees feel secure voicing concerns and asking questions—fosters trust and encourages open dialogue.
Effective change management mitigates risks and enhances employee morale and productivity. Ultimately, it turns potential resistance into collaborative energy, driving successful change implementation.
In conclusion, perspective is everything. By refusing to label events as good or bad, we learn to develop patience and openness. Often, the true impact of events emerges only with time. Initial setbacks may pave the way for future growth. We should stay curious and open to possibilities. By developing adaptability and resilience, we turn unpredictability from a threat into a strategic advantage.